Alternative Hypotheses

Taking a statistical analysis approach to the Shakespeare authorship question, a null hypothesis must be disproved by an alternative hypothesis--also known as "maintained hypothesis" or "research hypothesis"--designed to negate it. An example of such an alternative hypothesis might be . .

EXAMPLE:

• H₁: The works generally attributed to "William Shakespeare" were mainly written by Mary Sidney Herbert, with the Sonnets partially written her--and by her son William Herbert and his paramour, Mary Fitton.¹

This alternative hypothesis would need to be tested against the null hypothesis using a statistical hypothesis test. Statistically establishing that the p-value² is high enough³ likely involves documentary evidence in what's known as a "paper trail" comprising . .

"the successive drafts and revisions of (the author's) writings; his diaries, letters, and autobiographical fragments; the letters and reminiscences of members of his family and his friends; legal records such as affidavits, deeds, and wills."⁴

Other ways of establishing documentary evidence might also include paintings, statues, grave markers, etc.⁵

Though one example of such hard evidence should prove enough--if nothing contradicts it in support of the null hypothesis--more would likely be needed given the contentious nature of this authorship debate (and the chance of forged evidence emerging).

The continued lack of such evidence, despite an intense ongoing research from all sides of the debate, might best be used to direct (or redirect) research⁶--to different approaches and techniques, to different possible candidates, or to different research locations,⁷ e.g., geographic regions.⁸ Without any hard evidence the solution would need to pass another evidentiary standard, e.g., beyond doubt,⁹ beyond reason, beyond argument, etc.¹⁰

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1. as discussed in Shakespeare's Sonnets and the Authorship Question: Mary Sidney Wroth.
2. the probability that the results would be as extreme as actually observed.
3. extremely different enough from the null hypothesis to negate it.
4. Richard D. Altick, The Scholar Adventurers (1966).
5. an alternative hypothesis would disprove the null hypothesis by attaching authorship to actual persons, whether the pen-name came from the author group or was used by publishers/printers for their own purposes or convenience.
6. hypotheses developed as to why no such evidence has emerged over the centuries; establishing as a contemporary baseline the existence of such with other writers of the period.
7. the lack of observational evidence of any authorship "candidates" actually penning these works might suggest they had been created out of view (such as behind bars in a jail or prison), or covertly (perhaps involved with espionage of some sort).
8. works might have been created outside, by agents of or expatriates from, England; or by citizens of other nations working outside its borders.
9. as in Shakespeare Beyond Doubt: Evidence, Argument, Controversy by Paul Edmondson and Stanley Wells (2013).
10. An hypothesis that answers all questions is considered a "certainty" by some.