The Howard Dean Rule

Everything looked rosy for Howard Dean's 2004 presidential bid until the people actually had their say. I'm applying what I call the Howard Dean Rule to this year's race, doing my best to ignore the prognostications of pundits and pollsters before any actual voting occurs.

I gave myself the first four contests—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada—before I started reaching any conclusions of my own.

Sure enough, IA and NH gave us some surprises. Here are a few of my thoughts on the other two:

DONALD TRUMP

From the beginning I've said about Christie and Trump—and Giuliani before that—that the whole New York/New Jersey tough guy, in-your-face, insult machine approach doesn't work outside that region. Proved in Giuliani's and Christie's case, it's yet to shoot down Trump. Why? Because he's a national TV celebrity—and has learned much from that about how to appeal to people—and because he is actually quite talented at communicating.

The real test comes in the Deep South where, as backstabbing at it might be behind the scenes, decorous behavior is still valued face-to-face. Will Trump's bombastic Yankee bravado go over down there?

JOHN KASICH

This guy is running a cherry-picking campaign, with an eye toward later primaries in the Midwest—especially his home state of Ohio, where it's winner-take-all (held March 15 with Florida). He admitted in NH he should be running in the Democrat primary, and a major donor has suspicious connections with the Clintons.

Did his strong showing in NH push Rubio out? Was that something the Dems wanted? This may be why he's spending some of that funding that came in after his second-place finish in The Granite State on ads in SC—because he needs to push Bush and Rubio further out of the race to stay alive.

Maybe he's doing like Lincoln, wanting to be everybody's second choice. Maybe some Dems will switch over—on somebody's marching orders?—and pull the lever for the LGBT-friendly Kasich. If he plays his cards right he could end up an attractive VP candidate.

MARCO RUBIO

Rubio's big shot appears to be the Nevada caucuses. His Mormon roots are there, and he's been courting Sheldon Adelson—who now owns the biggest newspaper in the state.

If he wins or places in Nevada, combined with his middling performance elsewhere, he likely stays a force. To place third in SC likely means he beats out Bush—and should keep him alive. Will his Mormon faith be brought out in the "Buckle of the Bible Belt"?

Marco needs to consider his vice presidential prospects now, making sure he doesn't burn the house down to get the bedbugs.

JEB BUSH

Jeb came back to life in "Bush Country North" up in the cold White Mountains of NH. SC proved to be "Bush Country South" for his brother in 2000, giving him a comeback win. Because it's do-or-die for Jeb, I expect the Bush camp to pull out all the stops—like the way his former president brother criss-crossing the state for him for the first time.

Anything less than third here could ring the death knell—especially if fellow Floridian Rubio edges him out. Jeb needs to win Florida's winner-take-all contest March 15 to have a shot.

TED CRUZ

Ted should do well with evangelicals in SC, and he's coming out of the first two contests with a win and a show. His chance at total mastery is the next debate—which vaulted Newt Gingrich to 2012 SC winner.

Cruz is a master debater. And he, like Bush, needs to take out Trump. Maybe he'll do both Saturday night in Greenville.

BEN CARSON

As most of the other "also ran" candidates are peeling off, Carson sticks saying he'll hang in there as long as his supporters will have him. To make some count of point not being made by the other candidates? To keep a black candidate in the race? At some point such reasons don't justify the continued state-to-state slog—or the votes he might be taking away from more viable candidates.

Hard to see him doing much in these next two contests, but as with sports, if we always knew the outcome we wouldn't need to play the games, right?